Two attacks on the surface temperature record (September 16, 2007)

The surface-temperature record is under two major attacks in the last few months. Surface temperatures are important because they provide direct evidence about global temperature change for the last 100-200 years. The satellite record is more accurate but does not go back but a few decades. If the surface temperature records cannot be salvaged, then only indirect measures of temperature will be available for times earlier than a few decades ago.

If that happens, then, more people will stop gasping about climate-caused disaster and get serious about climate change.

The two attacks are:

• Anthony Watt just released his classification of the conditions of U.S.-based weather stations, which form the bulk of the surface temperature record. He and his volunteers have only surveyed one third of the stations that exist, but it looks bad. Over half of them have installation problems that skew the recorded temperature up by two degrees Celsius or more.
• Steve McIntyre has led a team in auditing NASA's adjustments to the U.S. surface temperature record. These adjustments matter because they are large compared to the directly recorded temperature changes. McIntyre posts updates on his blog. McIntyre, you might recall, has already convinced NASA of one error in their adjustments, even without looking at the original source code.

Stepping back, isn't it interesting that both of these attacks are by geographically dispersed groups. These groups could only be coordinated over the Internet. These Internet-coordinated groups are something new for society, and their influence will have an effect on more than just software.